Indeed we already see stuff like OpenHarmony which was originally a fork of Android by Huawei due to US sanctions on them. I expect we’re going to be headed into a world of bifurcated technology between G7 and BRICS. As western countries continue to act in a petulant fashion, developers in the rest of the world will have no choice but to go their own way.
Why wouldn’t they be able to. Russia has a lot of tech talent, and tends to top programming competitions. Also, if this happened I imagine other countries like China would collaborate as well. China alone has a bigger population than all of the west, and a better education system to boot.