I think a lot of American planners expect the next war to be against China more than Russia, most likely as part of efforts to reclaim Taiwan militarily. Whether that actually happens or not, China seems to be trying to build a military that can win against the U.S., either by matching strengths or some more asymmetric means. I think I saw a story recently that China was constructing mockups of American navy ships in a desert that seem to be for war gaming, as an example.
Had a long talk with a very intelligent, young, Navy SIGINT guy last New Years. He’s been out there, intercepting and working on signal intelligence. Basically said, “China is the enemy, and they’re far more able and serious than you think. Can’t say much more, take it or leave it.”
Idk if Taiwan would be worth the war, at least not more than supplying Ukraine who’s fighting Russia, which has done way more damage to our country recently. We need to catch up on our local chip manufacturing capabilities fast first, though.
I can’t blame China for wanting Taiwan back. Imagine if we had a civil war and a foreign military invaded and occupied Alaska during a war just before it. Then at the end of the war one side fled to Alaska and declared it independant but we couldn’t retake it because we were so debilitated from the civil war and the war before it. Now a foreign government steps in and says you can’t retake your territory because they said so. I’d be pissed too.
Well the Japanese took Taiwan from China and then the nationalists fled China and took it over during the handover. No one asked the Chinese natives originally there if they wanted to separate from China.
We fought a civil war to keep the nation together.
IMO it wasn’t a good reason to fight a civil war. Fighting to force the south to end slavery was a good reason. Or because the south attacked the north because what it really wanted was to force the north to obey their laws about returning slaves rather than just secede and do their separate thing.
But the whole “you belong to us, like it or not” attitude is just imperialistic evil whether done by the USA or China. Or Russia or Israel.
Like if Texas seceded, the only military intervention I’d agree with is one that ensures those who don’t want to be a part of separatist Texas have free passage out and support for areas that want to secede from the independent Texas (and both of those are under the assumption that Texas is gonna Texas and try to oppress/put down those people instead of let them do their thing). And there would probably need to be some kind of treaty that figures out how to handle the federal stuff in Texas and it would be incredibly complicated, but I don’t think “it’s complicated” is a good justification to civil war them into staying because it’s already there.
I think a lot of American planners expect the next war to be against China more than Russia, most likely as part of efforts to reclaim Taiwan militarily. Whether that actually happens or not, China seems to be trying to build a military that can win against the U.S., either by matching strengths or some more asymmetric means. I think I saw a story recently that China was constructing mockups of American navy ships in a desert that seem to be for war gaming, as an example.
Had a long talk with a very intelligent, young, Navy SIGINT guy last New Years. He’s been out there, intercepting and working on signal intelligence. Basically said, “China is the enemy, and they’re far more able and serious than you think. Can’t say much more, take it or leave it.”
China is still mostly poor and rural. For all of their economic expansion things are still basic there for most people.
If 75% of China’s population is poor and rural, that other 25% is still higher than USA’s population, which also includes poor and rural people.
Idk if Taiwan would be worth the war, at least not more than supplying Ukraine who’s fighting Russia, which has done way more damage to our country recently. We need to catch up on our local chip manufacturing capabilities fast first, though.
I can’t blame China for wanting Taiwan back. Imagine if we had a civil war and a foreign military invaded and occupied Alaska during a war just before it. Then at the end of the war one side fled to Alaska and declared it independant but we couldn’t retake it because we were so debilitated from the civil war and the war before it. Now a foreign government steps in and says you can’t retake your territory because they said so. I’d be pissed too.
But what do the residents of Alaska have to say? Are they doing fine? Would they be doing better if they were back under US?
Well the Japanese took Taiwan from China and then the nationalists fled China and took it over during the handover. No one asked the Chinese natives originally there if they wanted to separate from China.
We fought a civil war to keep the nation together.
Ok, but has anyone asked them anything now?
IMO it wasn’t a good reason to fight a civil war. Fighting to force the south to end slavery was a good reason. Or because the south attacked the north because what it really wanted was to force the north to obey their laws about returning slaves rather than just secede and do their separate thing.
But the whole “you belong to us, like it or not” attitude is just imperialistic evil whether done by the USA or China. Or Russia or Israel.
Like if Texas seceded, the only military intervention I’d agree with is one that ensures those who don’t want to be a part of separatist Texas have free passage out and support for areas that want to secede from the independent Texas (and both of those are under the assumption that Texas is gonna Texas and try to oppress/put down those people instead of let them do their thing). And there would probably need to be some kind of treaty that figures out how to handle the federal stuff in Texas and it would be incredibly complicated, but I don’t think “it’s complicated” is a good justification to civil war them into staying because it’s already there.